Fight the 40 Interview with Micah Roberts of Public
Opinion Strategies
Survey Finds Public Believes 40% Tax Will Bring Bad Consequences
To get a better idea of public attitudes toward the 40% tax on health
plans, the American Benefits Council earlier this year hired a polling firm,
Public Opinion Strategies (POS), to survey what people know about the tax and
how they respond to various facts and claims about it. The firm conducted a
nationwide survey of 1,200 registered voters from Jan. 29 to Feb. 3, and also
assembled focus groups on the topic. This month we spoke with Micah Roberts, a
vice president of POS, about the survey’s findings.
Roberts said the poll results should be understood in terms of the “bad
environment” nationally for the Affordable Care Act, and people’s relatively
gloomy sense of their own position. “Things are not going in the right direction
for most people in terms of where the country’s headed,” Roberts said. “People
don’t really like the health reform law, they’re feeling pretty bad about
Congress, and they don’t feel too great about their economic situation. The
‘right direction/wrong track’ trend line is now into the 70s for ‘wrong track,’
and it was only 63 when we did the survey – so we’re into a downward spiral in
terms of public attitudes about the direction of the country.” The focus groups
also showed “a general sense of being lost on everything that’s happening with
health reform,” Roberts said. “People don’t understand how it works, why it’s
happening, why their premiums are skyrocketing and why their options are being
limited.”
Roberts said the survey showed a low awareness of the so-called
Cadillac tax. “Just 30% of people were aware of the tax, and that was actually
higher among Republicans and lower among Democrats and independents. So there’s
an intensity factor around this issue, and it’s centered on the negative side,”
he said. “We found that 48% of voters say they would support repeal, while just
20% say they support implementing the Cadillac tax, and 38% don’t know enough
to have an opinion… It was a very high number for repeal, and 40% of those said
they strongly support repeal, compared to only 8% who said they strongly
support implementing the tax – that was a stunning 5-to-1 differential in
intensity, favoring support for repeal.”
Fearing the Worst. The survey found that when people were
presented with potential positive and negative consequences of the 40% tax,
they tended to believe the worst. “We found that all the things that could be
the worst outcomes – cost increases for them personally; fewer choices in the
marketplace; fewer employers offering health care; more people going without
health insurance – those are all among the most likely things people said would
happen if the tax were implemented,” Roberts said. Conversely, they rated the
more positive possible outcomes as being the least likely to happen. Roberts
said 70% of respondents agreed with the statement, “The Cadillac tax should be
repealed because it won’t bring in $70 billion as expected, employers will drop
or reduce health benefits to avoid paying the tax, and proponents are actually
wrong when they assume employers will raise workers’ taxable wages to make up
for the reductions in their benefits.” And after hearing arguments for and
against the 40% tax, a 2-to-1 ratio of respondents said they would be more
likely to support re-electing their member of Congress if they voted to repeal
the tax.
Roberts’ firm also tested how people responded to various messages
about the tax. “The most effective messaging on the pro-repeal side is that the
tax will force businesses to provide health plans with fewer benefits and higher
deductibles. Seventy percent of people thought that was a convincing reason to
repeal the tax,” Roberts said. “The second-most effective message for repeal
was a statement that said, ‘175 million Americans get insurance through their
jobs, and employers should not be penalized for offering health benefits they
believe their employees deserve and want.’ That was a convincing reason for 76%
of the people we surveyed. It speaks to the reality, which is that people who
are gaining access through their employer to health care really don’t want to
have that system undercut by the ACA.”
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